The CDM Big Data Poll finds Republican Mark Finchem leading Democrat Adrian Fontes for Arizona Secretary of State, 45.0% to 42.5%, with 12.5% undecided.
"Unsurprisingly, there are considerably more undecided voters in the race for Secretary of State than we see at the top of the ballot," Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. "That said, these are voters without college degrees who are largely voting Republican on the rest of the ticket."
"Perhaps more noteworthy, Finchem holds a slight lead over Fontes in his own home county."
Far fewer Democrats (63.0%) than Republicans (71.9%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, as was also the case in the previous survey. Finchem leads Fontes among extremely enthusiastic voters, 50.7% to 43.6%.
Nearly all voters (97.9%) who are “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November, up slightly from 97.4% in July. Of those most likely to vote, Finchem leads Fontes 47.1% to 43.2%.
By region, Finchem hold a slight 46.2% to 43.9% lead in Maricopa County, the largest county that represents roughly 60% of the vote statewide. That's within the sampling error of the survey and it's important to note sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Fontes leads in Pima County 53.3% to 35.2% and Finchem leads in the rest of the state, 48.4% to 31.8%.
President Joe Biden's approval rating is still significantly underwater and negative, and intense disapproval has not diminished. Only 43.2% of likely general election midterm voters approval of the job he's doing, including 19.2% who strongly approve. However, 55.7% disapprove to include 49.3% strongly disapprove.
The CDM Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 974 likely general election midterm voters statewide via mixed-mode Peer-2-Peer SMS and OSP from October 2 to October 5, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 2/4-cycle midterm vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
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