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Imagine you voted Conservative – you wanted your country to be able to control immigration. 

And then you get MORE immigration. 

A LOT more. 

Whilst (green?) energy bills are really draining you pocket, your government puts illegal migrants up in hotels, all inclusive, sometimes 4-star hotels and beyond. 40,000 of them. 

Imagine you voted Conservative – that dour Jeremy Corbyn fella really had you worried about socialism and even higher taxes…

And then you get more of it – the highest tax burden in 70 years.

Imagine you voted for Brexit in 2016 – that whole sovereignty part somehow appealed to you: being in charge of your own laws, determining what your taxes get spent on, having British courts being the final decider of your laws (radical, right?). 

And then your “Conservative” government manages to delay Brexit by three years, negotiates the worst deal in the history of deals, and even after Brexit a European court is still somewhat in charge of your immigration policies.

Imagine you are suddenly provided with two Prime Ministers that nobody has voted for. 

The current one, Rishi Sunak, has not even been voted for by the Tory party base. 

Imagine that this unelected “Conservative” Prime Minister then proceeds to be “open” to some sort of “Climate Reparations”, backpaddles, and somehow still millions of pounds end up being ear-marked for unaccountable third world governments.

Imagine if census results came out that showed that white British were a minority in the three major UK cities of London, Birmingham and Manchester and a “Conservative” Member of Parliament arrogantly tweeted back “So What?”.

We don’t need to speculate. 

All of the above is the reality, sadly.

What would you do? 

Why bother voting for a self-professed Conservative party, if you are getting exactly the same as if you had voted for a socialist, progressive party?

If the current Tory pitch “Yeah, but Labour would be even worse” is the best you can do – as a political movement you are finished.

This is reflected in the polling. 

Labour are already licking their chops with being 20% ahead .

The Tory establishment is scrambling. 

Up to now only with clumsy, transparent “read meat” moves to placate those ‘right wing’ yokels of the electorate. 

Predictably that has not worked – funnily the yokels were not daft enough to fall for the umpteenth talking tough on immigration posturing.

So how are Tories going to dig themselves out of this predicament? 

Is a revolt afoot by those “true Conservatives” we keep hearing so much about? 

Tory Rebellion led by Lord Cruddas?

Unlike his party leadership, a peer in the House of Lords, Baron Cruddas, also one of the biggest Tory donors, acknowledges the situation and is willing to do something about it. 

He warns particularly against the competition to the right by Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s party -that in polls has risen to 8% (without any campaigning whatsoever). 

Will Peter Cruddas succeed in moving the Tories to the right again? Will change come from within?

Unlikely. 

Cruddas’s idea of empowering the Tory party base is valid though. 

It would have prevented the current Prime Minister – given that the base voted against him before. 

Too little too late, it seems.

The fact that Cruddas wanted to bring Boris Johnson back in the summer after Liz Truss’s short – naively misreads the situation. 

Really, Boris, the ‘gut-libertarian’ populist darling who seemed to be getting more net-zero “green” by the day?

Tories hollowed out. Great replacement of the Tory party? 

Speaking to a politics veteran who intimately knows British and Conservative party politics – the Tories are hollowed out, without knowing it. 

In truly conservative electoral districts who would want to be associated with the Tories? Who will be energized enough to knock on doors, hand out leaflets, for…what exactly? 

Who will even bother trudging to the nearest polling centre on a cold, damp British winter day if the best you can hope for is Socialism light?

This has created an opening for a genuine Conservative freedom-focussed party.

However, under a “First Past the Post” system – the emergence of a new party is VERY difficult. Especially on the political right the concern is that every vote for a new party effectively becomes a vote for the left (Labour, the [no so] Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National Party, the Green Party) as it takes votes away from the Tories.

Therefore, the Brexit Party (Reform UK’s predecessor) actually did put country before party in the 2019 elections: the Brexit party stood down its candidates which then gave Boris Johnson his 80 seat majority in the parliament. It would have served the Tories well to remember that.

However, competition to the right has proven to be impactful in the past, even without forming a direct threat to the Tories at national level:

When UKIP was very successful in the European Parliament Elections in 2014 (and won more votes than the Tories) and started taking plenty of council seats from the Tories, then Prime Minister David Cameron panicked and finally offered the EU referendum that he still had categorically ruled out only 2 years prior to that. 

The rest is history.

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That history should offer plenty of encouragement for a new party from the right / centre. 

‘Where is Farage then?’ a number of pundits on the right have impatiently been asking over the last months, almost in an accusatory way.

Farage in fact has been very active - using his well-honed media talents to raise issues that the mainstream would have preferred to remain schtum about – such as the rising tide of illegal boat migrants. His show on GB News(a new, right leaning channel, only founded 1 year ago) not only provides informative, entertaining interviews, but already the title Talking Pints highlights Farage’s uncanny branding talents.

We may yet see a great replacement event not seen for about a 100 years when Labour replaced the Liberal Party as the main rival party to the Tories in the UK’s de facto two party system. If anyone can do it, Farage’s and Richard Tice’s Reform UK might just be able to pull it off.

Conservatives and libertarians from other European countries, and beyond, (yes, Germany / CDU talking to you) should take note and study Farage’s tactical and communications approach.

There may be a choice beyond Socialism and Socialism light soon.

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