All results from the CDMedia/Georgia Record/Big Data September 24, 2021 poll will be posted here in stages.
Republicans lead Democrats statewide on the Generic Ballot in Georgia ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, according to a new CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll. If the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, voters in the Peach State would back the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate by roughly 5 points, 43.7% to 38.7%.
Unaffiliated voters backed Republicans by about 3 points, 30.3% to 26.7%, though more than 1 in 3 (34.1%) remain undecided. Nine-percent (8.9%) chose someone else. Third Party voters are leaning toward Republicans by 5 points, 17.5% to 12.8%, with more than half (56.2%) undecided. Fourteen-percent (13.5%) say they would vote for someone else. Combined, Democrats trail Republicans among non-two-party voters by 4 points, 28.0% to 24.3%.
“As we saw in the election for U.S. Senate in Georgia, voters are leaning toward the Republican candidate outside the survey sampling error,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “But there are key differences in the voting coalitions that result in Republican candidates for the U.S. House running slightly behind their presumptive nominee, Herschel Walker.”
“There are also more undecided voters for the lower chamber than the upper chamber.”
More than 6 in 10 white voters (62.3%) chose the Republican candidate, as did slightly more than 1 in 10 black voters (10.3%). White voters represent slightly more than 6 in 10 voters in the Georgia electorate, while non-white voters combined typically represent just under 4 in 10.
By area, the Democratic candidate leads only among Urban voters, 58.3% to 25.4%, with 13.6% undecided. Republicans dominate among rural voters by more than 40 points, 61.3% to 19.9%. In the suburbs, Republicans hold a slight 2-point lead.
By region, Democratic candidates for the U.S. House lead only in Atlanta Metro, 54.3% to 30.7%. Republicans lead in the North (48.5% to 31.7%), Central Georgia (51.9% to 26.9%), and the Coast / South (45.5% to 35.1%). The Atlanta Suburbs are just outside of the sampling error with Republicans leading by over 3 points, 44.2% to 40.8%.
Important to note, the survey was conducted before the crisis of the debt ceiling and the failure of the Democratic majority to force the Biden Administration’s infrastructure bill into law. As previously reported, the CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll found President Joe Biden’s approval rating deeply underwater in Georgia. Only 41% of voters in Georgia approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing as president, while a solid majority (55%) disapprove.
“There is a well-established, strong relationship between presidential approval rating and party performance in midterm elections,” Mr. Baris added. “History, Democrats were already facing headlines in the U.S. House and the plummeting approval rating for the president is not helping.”
“Mr. Biden’s job performance has become a significant drag on Democratic candidates in Georgia, particularly with truly persuadable voters.”
Only 33% of independents statewide approve of the president’s performance, including only 10% who strongly approve, while 58% disapprove. That includes 39% who strongly disapprove.
The CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll for Fall 2021 was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,000 registered voters in Georgia via online survey panel from September 18 to September 22, 2021. The sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. Results were weighted to represent statewide voter demographics to include age, gender, race and region. Party identification or affiliation—separate from the more static party registration—is impacted by weighting aforementioned variables, but results are NOT weighted for party identification. The partisan breakdown of the survey was 38% Republican, 34% Democratic, and 28% Independent/Other.